Most roofing-lead tools sell you a list and hope. We did the opposite: we took real public permit records — a roofing permit is proof a roof was actually replaced — measured what truly predicts one, and graded our score against history before asking anyone to trust it.
A roofing permit is ground truth. We pulled decades of public permit data across multiple U.S. cities and ran a true out-of-sample backtest: score every home as it looked years ago, then check who actually re-roofed afterward. No hindsight, no cherry-picking.
On 86,000 homes with a known roof age, replacement risk climbs from ~2% (a roof under 15 years) to ~15% (25–30 years). A worn-out roof is replaced ~7× more often than a new one.
In hail country, replacements spike ~5× after a storm — ~39% come in under 5 years vs. ~9% in a calm market. When hail hits, demand explodes, and we see it first.
Ranking by building age barely beats random. Ranking by the roof's actual age gives the full separation. Knowing the roof clock is the difference between a guess and a prediction.
Worked blind, a street is mostly homes that don't need you. Ranked by RoofOptix, the likeliest roofs rise to the top — so a day of knocking turns up more real jobs, with the roof size, cost, and owner's number already on the lead.
The honest fine print: these figures come from calm and hail markets, calibrated on free public data — in storm-heavy markets the lift at the top runs higher. The score improves as we add local permit history and roof material, and when it does we'll update these numbers with new proof, not marketing. Lead scores are predictive estimates from public records, not guarantees.